Ukraine’s lesson for the developing world? Don’t give up your nukes.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s people hav been contemplating the reality of a nuclear attack from Russia. Continuous claims have been made about a possible nuclear attack in the upcoming weeks, and although many of these claims may prove to be public gossip and discourse, it represent a greater issue. This issue has arisen time and time again as a product of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine. While many point to Russia as the sole entity at fault, it is also Ukraine’s allies who have failed over the years. 

Upon the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine found itself with the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world, containing 2,321 nuclear warheads, far larger than China’s current arsenal. However, when declaring the independence of Ukraine, the nation was encouraged to completely eliminate its nuclear arsenal, leading to the creation of the Budapest Memorandum. 

On December 5th, 1994, five countries signed a memorandum. The legal name for this document is the Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with the Republic of Belarus’/Republic of Kazakhstan’s/Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Essentially, this memorandum was an agreement for the three post-soviet countries, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to surrender their nuclear arsenal. This agreement stated that if any of these countries were ever attacked, the guarantors, Russia, the U.S., and the UK would provide protection. According to data from UNITED24 (a Ukrainian media agency) and the US Department of Defense, following the signing of the memorandum, a portion of Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal was destroyed with the remains given to Russia. 

The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Clause two guaranteed that the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation were obliged “to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” They were also obliged to not threaten, use military force, or economic coercion against the signatories. However, one exception was made in the case of “self-defense or in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” This exception is when the current war in Ukraine is brought to the forefront of the conversation surrounding nuclear weapons. 

In 2014, everything changed for Ukraine. A beautifully sovereign and independent country was under attack for the first time since its independence in 1991. The war began in response to the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine (often known as Maidan), a revolution started by students in response to dictatorial legislation passed by the pro-Russian Ukrainian president. Maidan was an absolutely fundamental movement that, for many Ukrainians, established a clear divide between Russia and Ukraine, especially once the war broke out. On February 20th, 2014, Russian troops marched into Eastern Ukraine (known as the Donbas region), along with the southern peninsula of Crimea. President Putin immediately annexed Crimea and for the last eight years, Ukraine and Russia have been at war in the East. Over those eight years, total casualties on both sides amounted to just 14,000, as opposed to the estimated 90,000 total casualties since early 2022. Presently, in February of this year, Russia reignited the ongoing war by attempting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

The Budapest Memorandum states clearly that if there was any threat to Ukraine, Belarus, or Kazakhstan, then Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. are committed to seeking immediate assistance for Ukraine. To put it simply, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, neither the U.S. nor the U.K. took any action to defend Ukraine. The U.S. and the U.K. blatantly ignored the memorandum, which bound them to act, and instead did not intervene at all. Within the Kremlin, this was virtually seen as a “green light” for Russia. This is a clear sign that if Russia pushed further into Ukrainian territory, these so-called guarantors would take absolutely no action, which brings us to the full-scale invasion we see in Ukraine today. 

Currently, the second part of the memorandum states that signatories could not “threaten, use military force, or economic coercion against the signatories…except in self-defense.” 

This aspect of the memorandum provided a significant loophole for Russia in February 2022. During this period, Russian state-controlled news claimed that Ukraine and NATO posed a threat to the safety and security of the Russian Federation. Even despite the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russian politics and media advertise the war to their people as a “special military operation” – an act to protect Russia’s sovereignty. Again, claiming that the West is plotting Russia’s downfall. According to Russia, this war was a justified act of self-defense which therefore did not violate the memorandum. In contrast to these claims, Ukraine has been on the defensive throughout this war.

As the invasion of Ukraine continues, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in response to their war in Ukraine, causing hectic diplomacy in the West. Especially when nukes or natural gas are involved, there are huge debates, particularly in the EU about whether or not to continue aid to Ukraine. Recently, we’ve also seen Democrats in the US suggest that Biden slow aid to Ukraine, and encourage “peace talks” with Russia. Furthermore, countries like Germany and Poland have completely different views on the appropriate response to the war in Ukraine – leading to massive debates within Europe, and the West overall. In addition to the divided responses from various countries, the threat of a nuclear war has caused increased chaos among the public, leaving people questioning their government’s support for Ukraine. On many occasions, most notably in early March, late April, and parts of June and September, and again now, Putin has openly threatened, discussed, and even begun the processes for a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Not only would a nuclear attack be a devastating event for Ukraine but it would impact the entire world as winds would carry nuclear debris around the world. 

Nuclear war has continuously been a terrifying worry from historical events amongst most of the younger generations. This threat is a nightmare that older generations could have been subject to, but now it seems as if Russia is on the brink of launching nuclear arms. It is unclear if or when Putin may incite nuclear war but there is one necessity. Regardless of how this war escalates, the world must keep supporting Europe’s warfront and protecting democracy. 

Bibliography

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“Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances, 1994 – Council on Foreign Relations.” Web.archive.org, 5 Dec. 1994, web.archive.org/web/20140317182201/www.cfr.org/arms-control-disarmament-and-nonproliferation/budapest-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484. Accessed 25 Oct. 2022.

“Fact Sheet on WMD Threat Reduction Efforts with Ukraine, Russia and Other Former Soviet Un.” U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 9 June 2022, www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3057517/fact-sheet-on-wmd-threat-reduction-efforts-with-ukraine-russia-and-other-former/#:~:text=Ukraine%20Has%20No%20Nuclear%20Weapons. Accessed 3 Nov. 2022.

Kristense, Hans M. “Ukraine Special Weapons.” Nuke.fas.org, nuke.fas.org/guide/ukraine/.

Pifer, Steven. Arms Control Series Paper 6 • the TrilATerAl ProCeSS: The United States, Ukraine, Russia and Nuclear Weapons. 2011.

UNITED24. “UNITED24Media.” Telegram, UNITED24, 29 Oct. 2022, t.me/United24media/7. Accessed 2 Nov. 2022.